블랙잭 무엇으로 무장하고 카지노에 가야할까요?
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본문
방필 12일 남았습니다.
감기가 몇일째 떨어지질 않는데.. 컨디션 조절과 마인드 무장..등등
말년 병장처럼 떨어지는 낙엽도 피해 다니고 있습니다. 물론 잠도 충분히 자고요..
이제는 카지노에 갈때 이기려는 마음이 없다면 거짓말이고 조금밖에
남아있지 않습니다.
다만 최적화된 게임을 했는가? 그상태에서 적정한(확률에근거한) 판단을 했는가?
씨드관리. 게임시간, 테이블선택,베팅액조절 등 문제가 될만한것(위험)이 무엇이
있을까 ? 몇번의 점검을 해봅니다.
어차피 이기려는 결심으로 이길수 있는 카지노가 아니며
정규분포의 오른쪽 반이 승자이고 왼쪽 50%가 패자인데..
실상은 엣지라는것이 그것을 반반으로 나누지도 않을뿐더러
반복횟수에따라 시간이 가면 그 오른쪽 부분은 한없이 작아지기 때문입니다.
블랙잭공부를 한참할때 책도 많이보고 계산기도 많이 두들겨 봤고..
이제는 그럴일이 없을줄 알았는데..
폰툰때문에 다시 계산기를 꺼내보네요.
블랙잭에서 딜러16 버스트확률 61.54% 입니다 메이드확률 38.46% 이고요
숫자 하나 적어질때마다 버스트확률 약 7.7%씩 감소합니다.
(핸디도 마찬가지 이지만 스테이 할수는 있고 ..딜러 로우바닥이 아닐경우 스테이가
조금더 미세하게 불리하니까 같은 의미로 보시면 될것입니다 힛해야 한다는 말씀)
많은 핸디들이 착각하는게 예를 들어 딜러 6바닥 등 로우바닥(쇼잉업) 입니다
6바닥도 40초반이고 30%대 버스트 확률을 가지고 있습니다.
(딜러 로우바닥이 10번에 6~7번은 넘어가지 않는다는 뜻입니다.)
딜러 16인 경우와 6바닥의 차이는 분명 생각해볼 필요가 있는 문제입니다
딜러 로우바닥인데 안넘어간다고(버스트안된다고) 짜증내며 게임하는 핸디들 많이 봅니다
차분한 마인드가 게임에 도움이 된다고 생각한다면
로우바닥 3번에 1번만 넘어가면 만족하고 게임하면 더 훌륭한 플레이가 가능합니다.
폰툰에서의 딜러 16 버스트 확률입니다. 58.33% 입니다.
숫자하나 적어질때마다 약 8.33% 적어집니다.(딜러15에서 50% 이네요)
이것도 역시 쇼잉카드 한장 로우일때 버스트 확률은 한참 작아지고요..
(카드를 여러장 받아야 하는 경우는 확률로 계산할수 없고 수백만번의 컴 시뮬레이션으로
통계값을 사용합니다)
또한가지 더블을 쳐야할때 그림카드를 받는 확률을 음미해볼 필요가 있습니다.
9나 11은 제외가고 10더블만 계산해 보겠습니다
잭에서 9 혹은 그림카드를 받을확률 46% 입니다. 8까지 넣으면 약 54% 입니다.
이것이 승패와 거의 유사하게 직결 된다고 보면 반반의 확률이네요.
폰툰에서는 10더블은 41.7% 8까지 포함해야 50%가 됩니다.
에이스를 포함한 소프트더블은 훨씬 복잡해 집니다.
A9 A8 까지는 스테이 한다고 보고 A7~A2 까지 어떤 카드가 얼마의 확률로 유불리한지
잭에서는 A7 A6 A2~3 A4~5 순서가 되겠지만
폰툰에서는 더블이 3번 가능하니까.. 한참 다른 문제 이겠지요..
......
두서없이 얘기가 길어졌습니다.
확률의 이해는 게임하는 동안 승률에는 영향이 없겠지만 편안한 마음으로 게임하거나
게임할 테이블을 고르는데는 도움이 됩니다.
일시적으로 확률을 벗어나거나 승패나 숫자 카드배열의 쏠림현상을 스트릭현상이라고 하는데.. 이것 역시 운일 뿐이니 사람이 어쩔수 있는것이 아니고
이것(스트릭현상) 역시 좋은 쪽이면 즐기고 베팅을 늘릴것이며
나쁜쪽이면 도망가거나 베팅액을 미니멈으로 줄여야겠죠..
담 기회에 언급토록 하겠습니다.
오랬만에 계산기 때려보니 기분이 좋네요
모두 행복하시길 바랍니다.
댓글목록
상전님의 댓글
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폰툰은 많이 해보질 않아서 한동안은 재미있을것 같아요..
적당히 놀아야 할텐데요..
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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상전님 늘 행복하시고 목표하시는 바 이루시길 빕니다.
즐겜을 위한 마음가짐도 잊지 마시고요.
chrisccc님의 댓글의 댓글
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성공하세요!!!
세부샤커님의 댓글
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헉~~~어렵네요 목표액 정해놓고 그선에 올라오면 저는 먹튀합니다..
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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원래 카지노가 어렵죠..
항상 즐거운일 만땅 생기시길 바랍니다.
세부리키님의 댓글
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모든건 나의 운빨이다... 라는 무념무상의 정신으로 카지노를 대하시면 속편합니다.
블랙잭이나 폰툰이나 내카드 똥카드 딜러 왕카드 나오면
이길 방법이 없어요ㅠㅠ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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그렇죠 안되는 날은 신이 와도 안되는거죠..
ㅠㅠ
띵똥님의 댓글
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폰툰어렵네요; 건승하세요
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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감사합니다. 어렵지만 즐겁게 놀려구요..
좋은일 가득하세요..
덜트님의 댓글
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이번에 가서 카지노 아주쬐끔만 해볼랍니다 한 3천페소만요
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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많이 안해보셨으면 3000도 큽니다.
안하시고 구경만 하시는것도 좋은 방법입니다.
좋은일 가득하세요.
덜트님의 댓글의 댓글
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cod구경간김에 걍 삼천페소 단판 따던 잃던 걍 바로 나올라구요 ㅋ
마쪼님의 댓글
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카지노 많이 다녔지만, 푼툰은 해보지를 않았네요 ㅜㅜ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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안하시는게 돈버는건 확실해요..
DK엔터님의 댓글
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먹튀성공하세요~~~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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감사합니다 행복하세요..
삐짐돌이님의 댓글
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먹튀 성공하세요~~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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넵 삐짐돌이 님도요..ㅎㅎ
제임스한님의 댓글
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후기 자주 봐도 카지노는 어렵네요
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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간단하면 간단하고 어려우면 한없이 그러네요..
조벨아얄라님의 댓글
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카지노는 끝날때까지 이긴게 아니다 라는 말에 명심하시고 욕심없이 하면 될꺼 같습니다^^
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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욕심이 젤 중요한 포인트 같습니다.
지려고 해야겠죠..
이쑤시개님의 댓글
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역시 돈으로~~~
만다오김님의 댓글
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돈...
바비초님의 댓글
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재미로 살살하세요.
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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넵 그려려고요..
짜리짜리님의 댓글
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어려운게 카지노죠^^
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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쉽게 생각 하려고요..
딥다님의 댓글
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어렵네요...ㅜㅜ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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어려워도 풀어야할 부분이..
데이브DaVe님의 댓글
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먹튀성공하세요...파이팅...^^
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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감사합니다 이번 방필은 잘 될것으로 느낌 옵니다..ㅎ
해일의꿈님의 댓글
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확률까지 계산하시고..대단하시네요..^^
세상에 태어난게 도박의 시작이죠...도박의 끝은 어디일까요?
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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끝은 우주로 가는거겟지요..
결국은 숫자놀이일뿐..
행복하세요..
포도대장님의 댓글
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수많은 방필에도 카지노는 한번도 안가봤는데 ㅎㅎ 이번엔 한번가볼려구요
12월11일날 앙헬에 들어갑니다..좋은하루보내세요..^^
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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구경만 재밌게 하셔요..
행복하세요..^^.
김철민님의 댓글
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블랙잭 또한 모든 게임과 마찬가지로 확률보다는 흐름의 게임이 아닐까 생각드네요.... ㅎㅎ
물론 상전님 처럼 기본 확률은 마스터한 상태에서....
알리망오님의 댓글의 댓글
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저 같은 경우는 그냥 1 배팅하다가 딜러가 터졌다(21넘으면)
그때부터는 뿌러질때까지 2배 배팅하다가
다시 뿌러지면 1배팅으로 돌아옵니다.
약간 그런 흐름이 있긴있는 게임이죠.
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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여러가지 생각해 볼게 많아여//
에이스는 떨어지는지 로운에서 힛하면 메이드 되는지.
등등..
행운 함께하셔요..
알리망오님의 댓글의 댓글
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그게 확률적으로 에이스 빠졌다고 또 안나오진 않자나요.
픽쳐 연속 다섯장 빼내도 또나오는걸요...
안되는 날은 20잡고 블잭에 밟히고
되는 날은 13,14잡고 패스해도 딜러가 터져주잔아요
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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그러니까 흐름을 읽어야겠죠..
되는날인지 좀 쉬어야 하는지..
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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맞아요 흐름이 강한 게임이지요..
테이블 고르기 할때도.. 흐름 좋은 테이블 찾아서..ㅎㅎ
행복하세요..
꿀까당님의 댓글
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기본기가 엄청 대단하신것 같습니다.
건승을 빕니다.^^
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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감사합니다. 행복 가득하세요.. 혹시겜을 즐기신다면 즐겁게만..
이러어언님의 댓글
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무념무상이 가장 중요할거 같은데 그게 참 어렵죠.
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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그런 도닦는 경지는 아직이라 말씀드리기 어렵고..
마음 상하는일 없이만 놀려고 합니다.
행복하세요..
단석님의 댓글
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계산대로 된다면 누군들 돈을 잃겟습니까. + - 한도액딱정하고 잃든 따든 그선까지 즐기다 나오시길바랍니다~ 기왕이면 +
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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일주일 남았네요..
담주에 가서 재밌게 놀다 올 예정 입니다
김철민님의 댓글의 댓글
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전 25일 들어가는데 잼나게 놀고 꼭 WINNER 되세요 ㅎㅎ
오쵸님의 댓글
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먹튀를 한푼이라도 하면 성공하는게 카지노인듯하네요 ㅋㅋ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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예 조금 이라도 따면 좋은데 첨 부터 빠질때가 있으니..
적당히 즐기고 오겠습니다.
리차드기냐님의 댓글
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총알이 답이죠~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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총알관리 잘하고 오겠습니다. 응원해 주세요..ㅎㅎ
오이시디님의 댓글
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짧은것이 사는것입니다....짧게 그리고 굵게,,,,
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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단순하게 생각하는 것이 속편하고 좋지요..ㅎㅎ
유흥투어님의 댓글
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저두 낼 가는데 많이 따고 오세요~~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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좋은일 잇기를 바랍니다.
마포박사님의 댓글
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많이 따고 오세요~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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행복한일 많이 생기셔요 응원 감사합니다.
바다태공님의 댓글
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건승하시고 언능 튀세요~~~ㅎㅎㅎㅎ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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감사합니다.. 최선을 다해볼께요..ㅎㅎ
mi16님의 댓글
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필리핀도 미국이랑 블랙잭 규칙이 같은가요? 일반적인 베가스 기준으로요..
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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블랙잭 다이가 얼마 없고요..(전부다 해보지 못해서..ㅠㅠ)
내용은 대동소이 합니다.
마카오처럼 중국식 잭은 아닌것 같습니다.
김철민님의 댓글의 댓글
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필리핀에는 폰툰이 있는데 블랙잭 테이블인지 폰툰인지 꼭 확인해야 됩니다. ㅎㅎ
난데가자님의 댓글
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예전에 하얏트하고 파빌리온에서 쫑나고..만페소 가지고 혜르테지 푼툰으로 100만페소 가까이먹어본기억이~~
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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대박 이었네요..
잭보다는 폰툰이 승부가 빠르겠죠..
좋은일 많이 만나세요
난데가자님의 댓글의 댓글
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네 더블배팅이 무섭긴하지만 들어올땐 겁나들어 와요-.-
멍멍이드레님의 댓글
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초심자의 행운이 따르길바래요
haloman님의 댓글
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윈컷 로스컷이 중요하지 않을까요??~~~
후루룹퉷님의 댓글
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정신무장이 중요하다 생각합니다.
세부장기거주님의 댓글
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안되는날잘튀는게 좋져