바카라 계속 게임을 하면 지는 이유......
페이지 정보
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본문
플보다 뱅커에 벳했을때 이길 확률이 약간 높습니다.
50.3%.. 그러나 1/2에 가까운 값으로 볼수 있겠죠.
......
플 뱅 ..확률이 0.5 = 1/2 로 같다고 했을때..
10번 게임을 하면 6번 이길수 있나요?
불가능하지는 않은 확률 입니다.(가능성 있습니다.)
.....
그런데.. 100번 게임을 해서 55번이상 이길 확률.
100번중 60번이상 이길 확률.
100번중 65번 이상 이길 확률을 계산해 보겠습니다.
......
100번은 충분히 큰값이므로..
이항분포 B(100,1/2) 을 정규분포 N(50,25) 로 바꾸고
표준화 하여 표준정규분포표에서 값을 찾으면..
P(X>55) = P(Z>1) = 0.1587 약 15.9% 되겠습니다.
같은 방법으로 계산하면 60번이상을 이길 확률 2.3%
65번 이상을 이길 확률 0.13%...
......
게임의 커미션 때문에 본전을 하려면..
100번중 52.5번 정도는 이겨야 하는데..
이것의 확률도 약 31% 정도 입니다.
물론 페어 타이등 싸이드벳을 같이 할경우는 확률이 더 작아지겠죠.
......
처음으로 확률계산을 해봤네요.. 저도 깜짝 놀랐습니다.
고정벳으로 게임을 오래하면 녹아죽는 이유 입니다.
게임수가 많아지면 정확할 만큼 확률값에 수렴합니다.
(카지노 엣지가 크게 영향을 줍니다.)
댓글목록
마닐라좋아님의 댓글
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어휴,복잡하네요...ㅎㅎ
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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계산이 복잡하긴 합니다. ㅠㅠ
권대리님의 댓글의 댓글
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짧고 굵게친고 나와야한다는...?
카일레라님의 댓글
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사이드뱃은 절대 하시면 안됩니다 슈퍼6있는 다이에서는 마틴을 하시면 안됩니다. 진짜 배팅 마틴 5~6단계가서 뱅커 6으로 먹어서 절반되면 복귀가 안되요(은근히 이거 잘 터집니다) 줄떨어질때나 점핑 투투 등등 기회를 봐서 배팅좀 크게 올려서 연속으로 끊길대까지 먹고 스톱하거나 자기가 생각한그림대로 안가고 패배시 로스컷 지켜야되요
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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바칼에서는 뱃요령이 상당히 중요한것 같아요~
돈데님의 댓글
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좌우간 카지노에서 장기간 게임은 필패로군요^^
rosevill님의 댓글의 댓글
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저는 소액으로 만 하고 투자금액 2배 넘으면 무조건 먹퉈 입니다
참꼬또참꼬님의 댓글의 댓글
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저는 보통의 경우,
시드포함 2.5배 넘으면 2배는 잠그고,
0.5로 크게 한두판 찍어서,
죽으면 바로 일어나고,
먹으면 다시 집중해서 뱃금액 올려서 승부
추가로 원시드의 네배정도 되면 다시 잠그던가 게임 끝.
동하는 날은 아예 뱃을 네배로 키워서 계속 승부... 아님 말구요. ㅎㅎ
rosevill님의 댓글의 댓글
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안전 장치가 여러개가 있으시군요 ㅋㅋㅋ
참꼬또참꼬님의 댓글의 댓글
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바카라판에서 살아 남으려면,
이길 때던 질 때던 항상 "끊어가야 한다" 라는 확신을 갖고 실천하고 있습니다.
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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좋은 명언입니다~^^
권대리님의 댓글의 댓글
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잠그기가 왜이리 어려운지...
잭팟1님의 댓글
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절대적으로 공감하면서도 실천이 어렵네요..
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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그러다보면 지노형한테 휘말리게 되죠...
내가가는그곳님의 댓글
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아예 안하는게 젤좋죠 ㅎ
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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뱃속도 편하고 밤안새워좋고 잃지않아 좋으니~^^
Hooly님의 댓글
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너무 복잡하네요.ㅎㅎ
안잘레나졸려님의 댓글
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아..그래서 장기전은 안대는구나..
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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가기만하면 밤새우는 1인^^
잭팟1님의 댓글의 댓글
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저도 밤샙니다 ㅠ
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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승부사기질 이로군요~^^
길박사님의 댓글
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굵고 짧게....ㅎㅎㅎ
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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이건 바칼에 해당되는거죠?^^
호랑이8님의 댓글
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마틴 테스트해보기전에 봤어야할 글이네요... ㅋ
이라또님의 댓글
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어렵네요, 100% 확률로 5:5가 나오는데 몇판 더 이기는 확률은 엄청 낮다는 얘기군요
플뱅 5:5라 가정하고, 뱅 5% 커미션이면, 매판 플뱅 2.5% 인데요,
매판은 50%의 동전 앞뒤면이 나올 확률과 같고, 매판 2.5%의 커미션이 발생합니다.
1,000,000원으로 100판 매번 10,000원을 베팅하면, 확률적으로 마찬가지로 2.5% 커미션이 발생하여,
100만원중 97만5천원이 남게 됩니다. 50판 이기고 50판을 진다고 생각하면 그렇지요.
여기서 5판 더 이기는 확률이 상당히 낮군요,
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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정확히 계산하면..100만원을 1만원씩 100번 베팅할때..
약 50번을 지고 50번을 이깁니다.
즉 원금이 50 나간다는 얘기지요.
50번 이길때 플 뱅이 반반씩 이라면 뱅으로 이길경우가 25번 정도 생깁니다.
그때 커미션이 5%(500원)입니다. 즉 돌아오는 배당금이 12500원 적어집니다.
그래서 100번 베팅해서 평균의 승리를 한다면.. 987500원 남게 됩니다.
상전님의 댓글의 댓글
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100번중 51번 이상을 이긴다는 의미는,,
승패 49번을 서로 제하고 2판을 순수하게 이기는것 입니다.
그러면 커미션을 상쇄하고 손해보지는 않겠지요..
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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그러니 승율은 극히 희박한거군요...
그래도 수없는 겜블러들이 밤을 불사르고 있죠^^
백수왕님의 댓글
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바카라도 배우고 싶은뎅 ..ㅠㅠ
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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ㅋㅋㅋ...무슨말을 드려야할지~
gokpbt님의 댓글
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돈 많이 따세요 절대로 잃으시면 안돼요
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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길은멀어도 마음만은~^^
콩크루루님의 댓글
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햇갈리네요;;; 정말 가능한건가요?
돈데님의 댓글의 댓글
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대부분 그리하지 않나요?
louse님의 댓글
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방정식 수준~~~
권대리님의 댓글
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ㅎㅎㅎ답이네요 ㅎㅎㅎ